Blackjack Probability

Blackjack is one of those card games that have almost everything to do with mathematics and little to do with skill factors except being able to do simple math. Even when using simple math you won't have a guaranteed shot at winning, but you'll be putting yourself in the best position to get lucky and win the hand and that's about all you can do in this game.

You're never going to be able to win at blackjack every hand you play and we all can grasp this I'm sure or else we'd all be playing at the tables right now. There is always a chance of losing, but by using math you can make the odds in your favor as much as possible. What we're going to look at now is a table with the probabilities of busting every blackjack hand. You should spend the time memorizing this chart because it will help you know what percentage you have of busting the hand before you even make your move. If the percentage is unfavorable then you should stand generally although there are exceptions to this philosophy.

Hand value	% of busting
21	100%
20	92%
19	85%
18	77%
17	69%
16	62%
15	58%
14	56%
13	39%
12	31%
11 or less	0%

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The casino always makes sure that they have the edge in the game as well, and it's important to know that they have about a 2% better chance of winning the hand then anyone at the start of the hand. This is because they always get to act last and it allows for the player's to bust hands. If you consider how many times people bust there hand before the dealer even acts it's pretty remarkable how much they win without even playing there hand. Of course every casino game has a house advantage and if it didn't then they wouldn't have the game in there casino.

In order for you to make sure that this percentage decreases you should make sure you study the probability chart listed above as well as learn basic blackjack strategy. The percentages on the list are important to know because you need to know how hard it is to hit cards in blackjack. If you look at the percentages you're almost always under 50% chance of hitting a card that won't bust your hand which isn't really that good. You also should look at the dealers exposed card and consider the percentages of them busting there hand based on what there face up card is. For instance if you have 16 and the dealer has a 5 then most likely they are going to bust, well at least the odds are in your favor that they will bust the hand so you should stick with your 1 in this situation. If the dealer is showing an 8 and you have 16 though then you're going to need to think about hitting and getting lucky.

Blackjack is all about mathematics and odds and once you learn these percentages then it will be able to allow you to improve your game further. Once learning these as well it opens the door to learning more advanced blackjack strategy.